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Thursday, October 29, 2026 |
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The Last Page.
The last page, first.
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Washington Is $700 Billion From Its Debt Limit
The Fed held rates on Wednesday, and long-term rates stayed above 5% anyway. The Treasury Secretary says growth will handle the debt, and the head of the Congressional Budget Office has his doubts.
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Priority Gold, a precious-metals dealer, on keeping access to your own savings:
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The story
On Wednesday the Fed left its key rate alone. Two of its twelve voters wanted to raise it, worried that prices are still running too hot.
Long-term rates went their own way. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 5%, close to its highest since 2007. Bond buyers set that rate, and mortgage and car-loan rates are priced above it.
Those buyers have a lot to absorb. Washington ran a $2 trillion deficit in the year that ended in September. Interest on the debt alone cost $1.1 trillion, more than the $965 billion spent on defense.
That’s about $3 billion a day, paid to whoever holds the bonds. High rates cut both ways for you. New loans cost more, but savers can now lock in about 5% on Treasuries.
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The borrowing is also about to hit its legal limit. Congress set that limit last year at $41.1 trillion.
Total debt is about $40.6 trillion. The part that counts against the limit is a little lower, near $40.4 trillion.
That leaves roughly $700 billion of room, a few months of borrowing at this year’s pace. President Trump wants the limit raised before the year ends. Republicans may try it in the lame-duck session after Tuesday’s midterms, when the outgoing Congress still sits until January.
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Priority Gold, the dealer above, argues savers should keep part of their money out of Washington’s reach, and explains how:
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And guess where they’ll look next?
When governments go broke, they take from the people.
It’s happened before, and it’s happening again.
The Department of Justice just admitted that cash isn’t legally YOUR property. That means Washington believes it has the power to freeze accounts, confiscate retirement savings, and drain wealth overnight.
Think this is just a theory?
| Cyprus, 2013. The government seized private savings overnight to fund a banking bailout. | | Argentina, 2001. Citizens woke up to frozen bank accounts and forced currency devaluation. | | The U.S. TODAY? The DOJ’s new claim just set the stage for the same fate. |
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But there’s a way out.
We’ve put together a FREE Wealth Defense Guide that shows you 3 powerful ways to keep your savings out of Washington’s reach. No cost. No obligation. Just the information you need to fortify your financial future.
This is an advertisement.
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The bigger argument is about the bill behind the limit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in September that with 3% growth, “we grow our way out of this.”
Phillip Swagel, who runs the Congressional Budget Office, sees it differently. “It’s probably not plausible that growth alone will stabilize our fiscal trajectory,” he said this month.
Ray Dalio goes further. He told Bloomberg TV he expects a debt crisis “within the next three years.”
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Debt this size can reach savers through prices. American Alternative Assets has a free guide on why some retirees keep part of their savings in physical assets:
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When you began saving, America’s debt was nowhere near $40 trillion.
© American Alternative Assets. All rights reserved. This is an advertisement.
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$1.1T
Interest paid on the debt last year, more than defense
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5%+
10-year Treasury yield after the Fed held
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$700B
Roughly what’s left under the debt limit
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Debt limit
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The legal cap on what the Treasury may owe. Once it is reached, the spending Congress approved still stands, but the Treasury can no longer borrow to pay for it.
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December is a big month for your money. Besides the debt-limit vote, G20 leaders meet in Miami. Porter Stansberry, an investment writer, thinks Trump could use that stage to reset the dollar, and lays out how to prepare before then:
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Standing before the leaders of the most powerful nations on earth, at his own resort in Miami, I believe he’s set to unveil something that will impact every dollar you have saved and invested.
The original agenda for the G20 Summit was development finance and climate change.
That’s been scrapped.
Which means between now and December, there is a window. A chance to get ahead of what could be the most consequential change to our money in half a century.
It wasn’t voted on. It wasn’t debated in the Senate. And most Americans have no idea it’s even taking place but:
Good investing,
Porter Stansberry
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If the limit rises by January
Our best-case projection: June 2027
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If the lame duck stalls
Our worst-case projection: October 2027
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Best case
JUNE 2027. The outgoing Congress raised the limit in December, inside a budget bill that passed on party lines. The deadline came and went without a scare.
Growth held near the 3% Bessent asked for. Tax receipts rose with paychecks and profits, and the deficit stopped growing faster than the economy.
Bond buyers relaxed a notch. The 10-year slipped back under 5%, and mortgage rates eased enough to bring some buyers back in spring.
If you locked in Treasuries or CDs this fall, you still collect those rates. Years of them.
The debt is still huge, but it stopped being the headline.
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Worst case
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OCTOBER 2027. In December the lame duck went home without a vote. No deal, no extension. The new Congress split over spending cuts, and the Treasury hit the limit in the first months of the year.
It has paid the bills since with accounting moves that buy time. Those are close to used up, and the day the cash runs out is now weeks away.
Bond buyers want more to lend into that. The 10-year has climbed further, and every new mortgage quote climbs with it.
Retirees are calling to ask whether November’s Social Security deposit will land on time. Nobody in Washington will promise it.
And the interest bill keeps compounding while both parties argue over who should give in first.
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How it ends
You get a raised limit by New Year’s and 5% rates that stay, unless the lame-duck Congress goes home without a vote.
The limit draws the shouting, but it is the easy part. Washington has always raised it in the end. Until Jan. 3, one party holds the House, the Senate and the White House.
A budget bill can pass the Senate with 51 votes instead of the usual 60. That is how Republicans raised the limit last year. Sen. Kevin Cramer said last week Congress has to act, adding, “I don’t care how we do it, necessarily.”
Raising the limit settles the deadline. The bill keeps growing, because Washington still borrows about $2 trillion a year. Bond buyers want more than 5% to lend for ten years.
That rate keeps mortgages expensive. It also pays a saver about $5,000 a year on every $100,000 in 10-year Treasuries.
If the lame duck stalls, the fight lands on a new Congress, with a deadline around the end of 2027. Then a missed payment has a date on the calendar.
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Whether Congress raises the debt limit before the new members are sworn in on Jan. 3. Without a vote by then, the fight moves to the new Congress and the worst case is in play.
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Before you go
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