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The Last Page.
The last page, first.
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Who Knows the Midterm Results Before You Do?
Two weeks before the vote, CBS has started running betting odds next to its polls. The companies behind those odds and the people who guard elections tell very different stories about who is placing the bets.
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Washington has argued for years about people who trade on what they know. American Alternative Assets opens its message below with the most famous name in that argument.
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If you had followed Nancy Pelosi’s stock picks for the last few years, you’d have outperformed the market by over 40%.
In 2024 alone, her portfolio gained 71% while the market returned just 28%.
In 2023, she earned 65% returns while the S&P 500 gained only 24%.
It’s pretty clear to anyone with eyes that there’s a big club of “insiders” trading ahead of everyday Americans.
Congressional leaders outperform rank-and-file lawmakers by up to 47% per year, according to researchers.
The game is rigged. It always has been.
And it’s bigger than any stock trade Pelosi has ever made.
Buried within Trump’s plans is a new strategy on gold. One that hasn’t been used in the last 100 years.
Gold revaluation.
The U.S. government still carries 8,133 tonnes of gold on its books at $42.22 per ounce, a price frozen since 1973.
When he does, it will be the greatest wealth transfer in modern history.
And just like with Pelosi’s stock trades, the insiders are already positioning themselves.
This new guide reveals how everyday Americans can position themselves alongside the insiders.
It’s called The Great Gold Reset.
© American Alternative Assets. All rights reserved. This is an advertisement.
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The story
The midterms are two weeks from tomorrow, and you can bet on them like a ballgame. By late September, bettors had put more than $750 million on this year’s elections at Kalshi and Polymarket, CNN counted.
Each contract pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it does not. So a price of 70 cents means the crowd puts the odds at 70%.
You will see these odds on your TV. CBS said on Sept. 30 that it will run Kalshi’s live prices next to its own polls. CNN and CNBC signed similar deals last year.
The cases everyone cites are real. An Army Special Forces master sergeant is charged with making about $409,881 on Polymarket bets that Venezuela’s Maduro would fall. He placed them days before the raid that captured Maduro. A former White House teleprompter operator bet on which words the President would say. He agreed to hand back $107,539 and pay a $65,000 fine.
Kalshi’s chief executive, Tarek Mansour, says the record of every trade is the cure, because each one sits under a real name. “You’re committing crime in broad daylight,” he told a Washington conference on Oct. 14. That, he said, “makes it so much easier to kind of police that sort of activity.”
Michael Hornsby of the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a watchdog group, told CNN the trouble runs deeper: “This is legal, and that’s part of the problem.” Campaigns and the people around them often know before you do. To Kalshi, each case proves the system catches cheats. To the watchdogs, each case shows how much inside knowledge is out there to bet on.
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$750M+
Bet on 2026 election contracts at Kalshi and Polymarket by late September, per CNN
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17%
Share of Polymarket’s money on congressional races held by just ten accounts, per the Anti-Corruption Data Collective
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60%
Americans who oppose betting on elections, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 5
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Kalshi says the names behind every trade are what catch the cheats. Priority Gold, a precious-metals dealer, has its own view of what records like that mean for savers.
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A little-known executive order connected your cash, savings, and retirement to a system Washington can monitor and restrict. Your bank may have already signed on. When account access can vanish overnight, savers are moving a portion of their wealth into physical gold, an asset no order can freeze. Our free kit shows you exactly how it works.This is an advertisement.
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If the trade records work
Our projection: May 2027
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If one bet slips through
Our projection: election night
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Best case
MAY 2027. Election night came and went, and the odds moved with the count. Polymarket told Reuters its markets run about 98% accurate the day before a vote, and the big races bore that out. Two odd bets on small House races were flagged within days, and both accounts were banned.
By spring, the federal rule proposed on Oct. 9 is final. Election and sports bets now fall under the same federal rules as Wall Street’s bets on interest rates. One national regulator is in charge.
Insider cases still turn up every few months. Each one ends the way the teleprompter case did. The money goes back, a fine follows, and the trader is banned.
You hardly notice the odds anymore. They sit on the evening news beside the polls, like the weather. And the pollsters finally have a rival that loses real money when it gets a race wrong.
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Worst case
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NOVEMBER 2026. At 8:40 on election night, before a county reports, the price in a close House race jumps from 40 cents to 85. The crowd’s odds just went from 40% to 85%. By the watchdog group’s count, three in four congressional markets hold less than $1,000, so one big buyer can move the price.
Cable puts the jump on screen. Then the count goes the other way, and the losing side has a screenshot that says the count was wrong.
Los Angeles County’s top election official saw a small version of this in June. Early returns in the mayor’s race differed from the markets, he said, and voters began to question the count.
This time it plays out in a dozen states at once. A campaign aide is charged the following spring. By then the fight over your county’s count has hardened, and the bettor has spent his winnings.
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Election night can move more than the odds. American Alternative Assets has a guide on what a shift in Washington could mean for retirement savings.
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Retirement planning takes decades. Elections can change policy in a single night.
With debt at $40 trillion and both parties making competing promises, it is understandable to wonder whether taxes, spending, and retirement rules could shift again.
What Happens to Your Savings If Washington Flips?
© American Alternative Assets. All rights reserved. This is an advertisement.
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How it ends
You get betting odds on your evening news for good, unless the Supreme Court hands the rules back to the states.
The money points one way. Bettors had put $221 million on congressional races by Sept. 30, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective counts. The whole 2024 cycle drew $92.4 million.
Washington is pulling the same way. On Oct. 9 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator for these markets, made its move. It proposed treating sports and political bets as swaps. Those are the contracts big firms use to bet on interest rates and currencies. Its chairman, Michael Selig, said they belong to his agency’s “exclusive jurisdiction,” meaning Washington alone sets the rules. Once a bet is a federal product, it is hard for one state to ban it.
So the cheats will keep getting caught after the fact. Kalshi has already suspended at least six candidates for betting on their own races. An insider bet takes a few thousand dollars from other bettors. The bigger cost lands outside the market, on the public’s trust in a county’s count.
Voters dislike much of this. In the same poll, nine in ten in both parties said members of Congress and their staff should not bet on politics. That has not slowed the money. A court could. Two federal appeals courts have split on whether states may treat these contracts as gambling. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle it.
For you, the number on the screen on Nov. 3 is a price set by people with money on the line. Before you trust it, ask how much money.
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The date to watch is November 9. That day Kalshi must file its answer at the Supreme Court in New Jersey’s case against it. The justices then decide in private whether to hear the case. If they take it, the court will rule on whether states can treat these bets as gambling.
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Before you go: Priority Gold on a different court argument, one it says reaches retirement accounts.
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This is an advertisement.
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One big story each weekday, carried to its end. If it is not for you, the button below takes you off the list.
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The Last Page.
The last page, first. Reply and name the story you want finished.
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Priority Gold endeavors to provide the most accurate useful information and helpful advice to the audience at its best. But there is no 100% guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness in or about the content. Any advice offered by Priority Gold are just our opinions and not to be relied on by anyone or any purpose. Seek your own legal, financial, tax, investment, and advice before opening an account with Priority Gold. All decisions regarding the purchase or sale of precious metals are solely at your decision only. This is an advertisement.
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