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Tuesday, October 20, 2026 |
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The Last Page.
The last page, first.
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BlackRock Wants to Sell You Bitcoin With a Seatbelt
BlackRock asked regulators on Monday to approve a bitcoin fund that softens the first fall and caps the climb. It lands with the coin a third below its record. Its biggest corporate owner may be cut from a major index.
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Before we get to Wall Street’s new bitcoin fund, a message from Brownstone Research, an investment research firm that argues for skipping the coin altogether.
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A former hedge fund manager whose firm Barron’s ranked in the top 1% worldwide says buying Bitcoin is the wrong move.
His readers have had the chance to collect $4,898, $11,145, and even $17,350 from Bitcoin’s moves without owning a single coin.
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The story
Bitcoin is trading under $82,000 this morning. A year ago this month it set a record near $126,000. Anyone who bought near the top is still about 35% under water a year later.
On Monday BlackRock filed a fund for those buyers. It is called PBIT, and it will not hold bitcoin. It holds options, contracts that rise or fall with BlackRock’s $65 billion bitcoin fund. They are arranged to absorb roughly the first 10% of a fall. The price of that cushion is a cap on the gains.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart counts it as BlackRock’s third bitcoin fund filing. Each one makes bitcoin easier to hold inside a retirement plan. In March the Labor Department proposed letting 401(k) and similar workplace plans offer crypto, and that rule is still not final.
Two big names disagree on what comes next. Michael Saylor runs Strategy, the listed company once called MicroStrategy. It owns about 4% of all bitcoin. Pointing to this year’s low, he told Bloomberg TV on Oct. 13: “We hit the bottom around slightly below $60,000.” Analysts at the Bitfinex exchange warn that a slide under $79,821 could force lenders to sell out traders who borrowed to buy. They give that path “a higher probability than a sustained recovery.”
Then there is an index decision. MSCI, whose indexes tell thousands of funds what to own, may drop companies that mostly just hold assets like bitcoin.
Strategy is on its watch list. Its stock fell almost 10% on Friday. If index funds dump its shares, traders fear Strategy may one day have to sell some of its bitcoin.
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$126,000
Bitcoin’s record, set in October 2025
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$81,700
Where it traded early Tuesday, about 35% lower
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10%
Roughly how much of a fall BlackRock’s new fund is built to absorb
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The Fed meets again on October 27 and 28, and bitcoin traders are watching it too. In the message below, Brownstone Research’s Larry Benedict pitches his own way to trade around that meeting.
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The ticker is TLT, and Larry Benedict says it just became more important than ever.
The Federal Reserve’s recent hike could send it moving fast, and Larry plans to trade it in an unusual way that could double your money.
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If the market absorbs the index sale
Our projection: January 2027
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If Strategy is cut
Our projection: December 2026
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Best case
JANUARY 2027. PBIT opens for trading right after New Year’s, about 75 days after Monday’s filing, when it is allowed to take effect. Bitcoin is back over $100,000, and Saylor’s call on the bottom looks right.
MSCI’s November list came and went, and the index selling went with it. Sean Farrell of Fundstrat had put that selling near $2 billion. “I still think the market can absorb the associated flows,” he said in October. In this version, he was right.
Your brother-in-law bought near the top and swore off bitcoin in the spring. Now he is reading the PBIT fact sheet. So is whoever picks the funds on your 401(k) menu.
Nobody gets rich fast in this fund. It was built for the buyer who wants in but cannot sit through another 35% drop. In January, that buyer finally has a fund built for him.
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Worst case
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DECEMBER 2026. The November list named Strategy. Funds that copy MSCI’s indexes owned about 3.1% of its shares, and after trading ended on Nov. 30 they sold.
Bitcoin had already slipped under $79,821 by then, the level Bitfinex flagged. Traders who borrowed to bet on a rebound were sold out automatically. Each forced sale pushed the price toward the next one.
Every money show asks whether the company that owns 4% of all bitcoin will have to sell some. Saylor says no. The price is not waiting for his answer.
PBIT still opens in January. Its cushion covers only about the first 10% of a fall after you buy. In a market like this one, every loss past that is yours.
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For years bitcoin was sold as digital gold. In the message below, American Alternative Assets makes its case for the metal itself.
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The national debt has crossed $40 trillion.
When you started saving for retirement, you expected Social Security, Medicare, taxes, and the rules around your money to remain relatively predictable. But while you were working and building your nest egg, Washington was borrowing.
Now, the cost of that borrowing is growing, and retirees may feel it through a quieter threat: a dollar that buys less each year.
Since 2020, the dollar has lost roughly a quarter of its purchasing power. A retirement account can appear unchanged on a statement while the cost of groceries, insurance, property taxes, and healthcare continues to climb.
Meanwhile, central banks have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for three years running.
This Free 2026 Wealth Protection Guide explains why some retirees are paying attention, why stocks, bonds, funds, and cash can share the same dollar-based exposure, and how physical gold and silver differ from paper assets. © American Alternative Assets. All rights reserved. This is an advertisement.
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How it ends
You get bitcoin sold to savers slowly, with a seatbelt on, unless MSCI’s November 11 list sets off a forced sale first.
Look at who BlackRock is building for. A fund that trades away the climb to soften the fall is made for careful money. The biggest pool of careful money in America sits in 401(k) plans.
That road is slow by design. Tim Sun, an analyst at HashKey, wrote that new long-term buying “is not yet sufficient to drive a sustained breakout.” Investors pulled about $228 million out of U.S. bitcoin funds in the week to Oct. 16. Cautious buyers move in slowly, and a fund with capped gains will not start a stampede.
Washington is moving at the same speed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the 401(k) proposal “an initial step.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said, “Anyone who cares about the financial security of working people should oppose this proposed rule.” Almost seven months on, it is still a proposal.
The index list is the one thing that can move faster. If MSCI drops Strategy, the selling is mechanical. Funds sell because a list told them to, at whatever price is on the screen.
For you, the seatbelt has a price. You give up part of the climb to soften the first fall. When the first bitcoin fund shows up on your plan’s menu, read the cap before you read the cushion.
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The date to watch is November 11. That day MSCI publishes its final list of companies that mostly just hold assets like bitcoin. If Strategy is on it, the funds that follow MSCI’s indexes start selling its shares after trading ends on November 30.
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