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Thursday, October 22, 2026 |
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The Last Page.
The last page, first.
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How the “Booming Economy” Argument Ends
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says the economy is kind of booming. Moody’s Mark Zandi says it is booming only for people in the AI world, and a government report next Thursday tests them both.
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Henry Ford predicted flying cars in 1940. Last week, Musk’s new Tesla Roadster used rocket thrusters to jump over a row of cars at a demo. Doroni wants to skip roads altogether, and you can own part of it while it’s still private:
Own a piece of the flying car |
Henry Ford expected the sky to be next. “You may smile,” he said in 1940, “but it will come.” It took 86 years for the technology to catch up. Batteries, electric motors and flight computers had to get good enough first. Now they are. Doroni, a Florida company, is putting them together in the H1-X: a two-seat electric aircraft that takes off straight up and charges at home. Its earlier prototypes have already completed 70+ test flights. Paid advertisement for Doroni Aerospace’s Regulation A offering. Private early-stage securities are speculative and illiquid. Investors may lose their entire investment. Read the offering circular at invest.doroni.io.
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The story
Ask Jamie Dimon, and the economy “is kind of booming right now.” The JPMorgan chief said so in an Oct. 7 interview.
The big numbers back him up. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy grew at a 3.5% yearly pace from July to September. Company profits ran at a record $4.7 trillion yearly pace in the second quarter, the Commerce Department says.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, reads the same economy differently. He told Newsweek this week that it is “far from booming” unless you are part of the AI world. And he added that “most Americans aren’t.”
His proof is the paycheck. In September, average hourly pay rose 0.1%. Prices rose 0.6%. Over the past year, inflation climbed back to 3.7%.
Jobs and mood numbers lean his way too. Unemployment rose to 4.2% in September, from 4% in January 2025. The University of Michigan’s survey of how consumers feel sits near its lowest reading on record.
To Dimon, the boom is the whole economy. To Zandi, it is one neighborhood of it.
Many households live on both streets. If you have a 401(k) or a stock fund, AI is working for you. Goldman Sachs estimates AI spending drove nearly half the profit growth at the 500 biggest U.S. companies this year. If you live on a paycheck or a fixed pension, you feel September’s prices first.
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3.5%
Estimated growth pace, July to September (Atlanta Fed)
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+0.1%
Rise in average hourly pay in September
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+0.6%
Rise in consumer prices in September
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When prices outrun pay, a fixed income buys less each month, and savings run down faster. Below, Priority Gold, a precious-metals dealer, explains why some longtime investors hold physical gold in retirement accounts.
Guarding what you’ve built |
It’s happening quietly. Among investors who’ve been through multiple cycles,
Who understand how quickly conditions can change,
And who don’t rely on headlines to tell them when to act. They’re not exiting the market.
They’re not panicking.
They’re simply making one strategic adjustment: Reducing dependence on paper assets,
And increasing exposure to physical gold. Why? Because when governments face pressure, they don’t sit still.
They intervene.
They adjust.
They rewrite the rules in real time. And that creates risk, not for speculators,
But for people trying to preserve what they’ve already built. It breaks down, step-by-step, how to reposition a portion of your retirement into physical gold: safely, legally, and tax-advantaged. Because by the time the shift becomes obvious,
The opportunity is no longer quiet. This is an advertisement.
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If the boom spreads
Our projection: April 2027
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If the boom stays narrow
Our projection: February 2027
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Best case
APRIL 2027. The AI build-out never slowed, and it finally spread past the tech campuses. Every new data center needed electricians, pipefitters, steel and power lines, and those jobs paid well.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson had said in October that the market’s narrow run was in its “final innings.” He meant the gains would spread beyond a handful of AI giants, and they did. The S&P 500 is closing in on the 8,500 he penciled in for mid-2027.
Oil eased once the Middle East calmed down, and pay pulled ahead of prices. Families started putting money aside again instead of borrowing to cover the gap. Your 401(k) statement and your grocery receipt finally tell the same story.
Dimon’s word holds up. It was a boom, one that took a year to reach Main Street.
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If growth spreads past tech, owners of ordinary businesses share in it. Green Coffee Company, a private coffee grower, sells shares to the public:
From the shelf to your portfolio |
Private investments are speculative and illiquid. Returns are not guaranteed. Review the offering circular before investing.
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Worst case
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FEBRUARY 2027. The AI spending kept coming, and so did the record profits. The rest of the economy ran out of room.
Zandi had laid out the path in October. Unless oil prices came down, he said, low- and middle-income Americans “will have no choice but to pull back on their spending.” They did. Stores cut hours first, then jobs.
Borrowing never got cheaper. Strong AI-driven growth kept rates up. The government’s 10-year borrowing rate, near 5.1% last fall, kept mortgages and car loans expensive.
Your 401(k) still looks fine, because the AI giants carry it. That makes the split easy to miss from inside a retirement account.
The growth figure still looks fine too, because one strong neighborhood carries the average. An average can look healthy while most households feel worse. Ask any retiree whose check buys less each month.
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Even in the worst case, AI keeps carrying the stock market. Brownstone Research, an investment research firm, explains one big bet Nvidia has made.
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How it ends
You get a strong growth number and a squeezed household budget, unless the Oct. 29 income report shows paychecks pulling ahead of prices.
The boom is real, and it is narrow. Economists at ING estimated in August that AI investment alone accounts for roughly a third of U.S. growth this year. Without it, this year would look ordinary.
Even the stock market shows the split. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is bullish on where prices go next. Still, he said this week that breadth, the share of stocks actually rising, “has been terrible.”
The boom has a second cost, and it reaches everyone. A strong economy keeps borrowing costs high. Traders see an 85% chance the Fed leaves rates alone on Oct. 28, CME FedWatch shows. The 10-year rate, which steers mortgage rates, sits near 5.1%.
So the same AI boom that lifts the growth number also keeps your mortgage and car loan rates up. Index-fund owners collect from this boom. Workers and retirees on fixed checks pay part of its bill.
Workers need raises that beat the bills. Retirees on a fixed check need prices to cool. Higher rates help them in one way, because savings accounts and CDs pay more.
Many households feel both effects at once. The open question is whose paycheck the boom reaches next.
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The date to watch is Thursday, Oct. 29, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. That morning, the government reports September income for all households, from paychecks to Social Security. If it grew faster than prices, the boom is reaching households.
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Before you go
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If the Oct. 29 report shows prices still running ahead of paychecks, many households will lean harder on their savings. Priority Gold, the dealer above, offers a free kit on holding gold in an IRA or 401(k).
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Back to Henry Ford’s 1940 idea from the top of today’s letter, and the Florida company building it:
Electric flight, still private |
Doroni’s H1-X is a two-seat electric aircraft that charges at home, and its earlier prototypes have completed 70+ test flights. Shares are $3.30 until 11:59 PM ET tonight.
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One big story a weekday, taken to its end. If it is not for you, the button below takes you off the list.
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The Last Page.
The last page, first. Reply and name the story you want finished.
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Doroni: Paid advertisement for Doroni Aerospace’s Regulation A offering. Private early-stage securities are speculative and illiquid. Investors may lose their entire investment. Read the offering circular at invest.doroni.io.
Priority Gold endeavors to provide the most accurate useful information and helpful advice to the audience at its best. But there is no 100% guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness in or about the content. Any advice offered by Priority Gold are just our opinions and not to be relied on by anyone or any purpose. Seek your own legal, financial, tax, investment, and advice before opening an account with Priority Gold. All decisions regarding the purchase or sale of precious metals are solely at your decision only. This is an advertisement.
Green Coffee Company: Past performance does not guarantee future results. A 3.5% transaction fee applies to each subscription. Bonus shares are capped at 20% in aggregate, self-directed IRA subscriptions do not receive them, and other eligibility rules apply. This is a paid advertisement for Green Coffee Company’s Regulation A offering. Juan Valdez is a licensed brand. The Juan Valdez parties are not sponsors of this offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.greencoffeecompany.com.
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