Renewals ran 92.2 percent last quarter. The mood survey is in its first percentile. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
 
Thursday, September 24, 2026
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Sentiment Sits in the First Percentile. Costco Reports Tonight.
The long-running survey of American households puts them in the first percentile of everything it has recorded. The company 149 million of them carry a card for reports after the close.
The story
Michigan’s survey has been asking Americans how they feel about their money for decades. This month they answered 47.8. That sits below where sentiment stood at the start of all six recessions it has covered.
Joanne Hsu runs it, and expectations for the year ahead fell 15.7 percent in a single month. Democrats and Republicans posted sizable declines alike, she noted, and households expect greater pressures on their pocketbooks.
Costco describes a different country. Comparable sales ran up 9.8 percent last quarter, and 6.6 percent once you adjust for fuel and currency. Gary Millerchip, the chief financial officer, said members are willing and have the capacity to spend.
Both statements are on the record, and both describe the same twelve months.
You are one of the 149 million people carrying their card.
51.7
Consumer sentiment in August.
47.8
September, down 7.5 percent in a single month.
1st percentile
Where that reading sits against everything the index has recorded.
Renewal rate
The share of members who pay the annual fee again when it comes due. It is reported every quarter.
Best case
MARCH 2027.  The renewal rate came in at 92 and change in September and it stayed there. The index kept falling and the registers kept ringing.
The country had been answering two different questions all along. One asked how things felt. The other asked for sixty-five dollars a year, and it kept getting paid.
Your own card came up for renewal in January and you renewed it without thinking. The warehouse parking lot was full on a Tuesday.
Sentiment readings stopped making the evening news somewhere around Thanksgiving. The economy kept growing while the country kept telling pollsters it was miserable.
New warehouses opened through the autumn and the line at the door was the same as always. The people who had called it a recession in September spent the spring explaining the postponement.
Nobody ever went back to ask why the two numbers never met.
Worst case
SEPTEMBER 2027.  The renewal rate slipped in the autumn, and then it slipped again. Sixty-five dollars turned out to be a subscription like any other.
The executive tier went first. People kept the card and stopped paying extra for a rebate they were no longer earning. Costco called it a mix shift.
Baskets got smaller and the fresh aisle got skipped, and comparable sales fell from nine percent to three. The analysts called it normalization.
Your store cut its hours on Sunday, and the lot that was full on a Tuesday had room at the front by March.
Membership fee income stopped growing at double digits for the first time since the fee went up. Your own renewal notice arrived in the spring and you read the number twice.
The survey had been right the whole time. It had just been eighteen months early.
How it ends
You get another quarter of Americans paying to shop, unless the renewal rate breaks below 92.
The number that matters tonight is the one they paid before they bought anything. Comparable sales tell you what a household spent last quarter. The renewal rate tells you what it expects of the next twelve months.
A membership is paid in one lump, up front, before a single item goes in the cart. It is the one purchase a household makes with next year in mind.
The rate went up ten basis points last quarter, to 92.2 in the United States and Canada. Paid households rose 4.1 percent, and the executive tier, which costs double, rose 9.6.
Now run it the other way. Sentiment at 47.8 is a forecast households are making about their own finances. The record low came in May of this year, and the spending never stopped.
We ran it both ways. The survey is down 13 percent from a year ago and the spending held up anyway. That is the condition under which a survey finally turns out to be right.
Tonight the two numbers get measured against each other one more time. The card in your wallet is the tiebreaker.
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The hinge
Costco reports after the close tonight and gives the renewal rate with it. Last quarter it ran 92.2 percent in the United States and Canada. A number starting with an 8 would be the first real crack.
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